Kill Ledger
One dated entry per hypothesis decision — including, especially, the ones that died.3 published entries (2 killed, 0 proven, 1 corrected).
| Date | Hypothesis | Verdict | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | b27b ground-truth correction — re-audit of the canonical 'paper +$83/hr, live −$119' statistic | corrected | The canonical −$119 blowup was itself a measurement artifact: settlement scored against a 36-second-late Binance anchor, and a cash delta misread as PnL. Corrected bar-1 PnL: +$86.22 (−$118.75 on an unresolvable tie). |
| 2026-04-15 | eebd-replica — two-sided quoting-and-merge strategy replicating a pseudonymous wallet on BTC 5-minute bar markets | killed | Sim v3 said $1.69M ($56K with haircut). Live said −$253.08 across 22 bars — wallet $514.14 → $261.06. Six failure modes, five new: ghost fills, reference-price bias, concurrency races, venue-constraint spam. |
| 2026-04-14 | b27b — maker-buy ladder replicating a pseudonymous wallet on BTC Up/Down 5-minute markets | killed | Paper sim reported +$83.20 over 2.5h. Live: funded $633.37, killed after 8 minutes, wallet at $514.14. Root cause: the paper fill model was a strict subset of live execution and filtered out the most toxic fills. |